My 2013 NFL Mock Draft
It's just over a week until the 2013 NFL Draft and everybody has an opinion on who will get taken, who should be taken, and when they'll get taken. Mock drafts permeate the internet at this time of year, and with each one different from the last, there's not much reason for another one. Having said that, I wrote one anyway.
To begin with, this is one of the most wide-open drafts I can remember. There's no consensus #1 player, and even among positional groups, no definitive order to when they'll be drafted. At quarterback, after Geno Smith, there are no less than five different QBs laying claim to the second QB spot. It's the same at several other positions as well, meaning speculation is all anybody has at this point.
What is known is that it seems to be a deep class, despite the lack of a single top player. Wide receiver and cornerback are especially deep, with safety, defensive tackle, and running back right behind them. Teams will, of course, have personal favorites, but nobody will know those until draft night. Trades will also negate many mock drafts, as they're impossible to predict. It seems certain that somebody will trade up for one of the top offensive tackles, but aside from that, it's a crapshoot. With all of those factors, it certainly seems pointless to try and predict it. Here goes anyway.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT-The Chiefs, despite having the first pick, are in a tough spot. The potential top picks are all at positions they have established starters, if you count Alex Smith at QB. I do think they'll give Smith the chance. That leaves tackle, and Joeckel is the best. They have Brandon Albert at LT, but he's making a lot of money and likely gone after this year, or sooner if they can unload him via trade.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan, LB-Jacksonville could select Geno Smith here, as QB is a need, but they also badly need a pass rush. Jordan is an amazing athlete with quickness and an ability to contribute in a number of ways. He is good in coverage, but has the tools to develop into a very good pass rusher as well. The Jags will try to win games with defense for now.
3. Oakland Raiders: Ezekial Ansah, DE-Sharrif Floyd is the popular pick here, and could be the guy, but Ansah brings versatility and upside to the Raiders defensive line. He will need work, but his raw talent is undeniable, and the Raiders aren't in "win now" mode, so he will be able to take the time to get better, and grow with the rest of a young team.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Star Lotulelei, DT-This is a spot that could be ripe for a trade, with teams trying to move up for Eric Fisher. If they keep it, the Eagles could go a number of ways, with Geno Smith, again being an option. I think defensive line will be the pick, with a change to the 3-4. With health concerns cleared up, Star is back to the top of the list.
5. Detroit Lions: Eric Fisher, OT-There's an above average chance that a team will trade in front of Detroit for Fisher, but in this scenario, he's available, and an easy pick. Jeff Backus retired, leaving a hole on the line, and Fisher fills it. If Fisher is gone, Dee Milliner could be the pick. Fisher is considered nearly a sure-thing at T and makes QB Matt Stafford a lot safer.
6. Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo, LB-The Browns are yet another spot Geno Smith could land, but they likely go defense to add parts to the new 3-4 look. Mingo is a perfect fit as a pass rushing OLB, and would be a great addition, even though they added Paul Kruger. Mingo brings amazing speed and a ton of upside with him. Milliner could be an option as well.
7. Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson, OT-The Cardinals added Carson Palmer to play QB, but will need to improve an offensive line that was terrible in 2012. Lane Johnson is the last of the three elite tackle prospects and is almost assuredly the pick if he's there. There's a danger of a team trading up to take him before they pick, though. Jarvis Jones could be the back-up option.
8. Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, QB-The Bills need a QB, and the best in the draft found his way to them, making it an easy pick. He has some things to improve on, but has the skill-set to succeed in the NFL. His arm is good, and his mobility make him dangerous when the pocket breaks down. He's a pocket QB first, though.
9. New York Jets: Jarvis Jones, LB-The Jets were a circus last year, and need to get past that or it won't matter who they draft. QB is still a problem area, and probably remains so this year. They also need a pass rushing OLB, and Jones is the best available. There are health concerns, but if he is able to stay on the field, he's a playmaker.
10. Tennessee Titans: Dee Milliner, CB-With the addition of Andy Levitre at guard, the Titans will look to shore up the defense, especially the secondary. Here, the top CB in the draft is still available, and the pick. Milliner is long, fast, and athletic. He does have some questions about technique, but he fills a big need for Tennessee.
11. San Diego Chargers: Chance Warmack, G-The Chargers are a candidate to move up for one of the Ts, but in this case, they didn't. Philip Rivers needs a better line, so they go get the best G in the draft. Defense could be an option as well, possibly CB or OLB if one they covet is there. Warmack is one of the best players in the draft, regardless of position, and is a great choice.
12. Miami Dolphins: Xavier Rhodes, CB-Miami is another team who could move up for a T, but here, they go for another big need, CB. They've lost a couple of starters over the past few seasons, and really need to upgrade, even with the Brent Grimes signing. Rhodes has size and physicality, and showed more speed than expected at the combine. He'll start right away.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sharrif Floyd, DT-The Bucs could make three straight CBs, but with Floyd still available, they go there instead. He could be gone as early as #2 to Jacksonville, but in this draft, he fell a little due to needs of the teams. Here, he brings his quickness and ability to rush the QB from the interior to the Tampa Bay line.
14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT-The interior of the defensive line has been a need for more than one season for Carolina, and they address it here. Richardson is disruptive from the inside, using quickness and determination to make plays. He could be a steal at this point. Cornerback could be another option.
15. New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vaccaro, S-The Saints are switching to a 3-4 defense and need personnel to make it work, but the top guys are gone here. The secondary is also a concern and safety in particular. Vaccaro is the best safety in the draft, and is an automatic upgrade. He's fast and a solid tackler, and can play CB against slot WRs as well.
16. St Louis Rams: Tavon Austin, WR-The one consistent selection among mock drafts has been Austin to the Rams. With Danny Amendola gone, they can certainly use a playmaker like Austin. He's small, but his game-changing ability is remarkable. Every play is potentially a touchdown, and that's something that can't be quantified.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR-The Steelers would probably have taken Vaccaro if he was there, but they could also use a receiver to replace the departed Mike Wallace. Antonio Brown needs somebody to take the heat off of him. Patterson has question marks from having only one season of major college football, but he certainly has the talent.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper, G-This one might be another no-brainer, as the offensive line was a train wreck in 2012. Cooper is rated higher than Warmack by many people, and is an instant starter in Dallas. His strength and agility make him a fantastic option available at this point, and Cowboys fans will be thrilled to have him helping protect Romo.
19. New York Giants: Bjoern Werner, DE-The Giants lost Osi Umenyiora in free agency and would love to replace him, and keep a versatile D-line. Werner is big, strong, and fits in with what they want to do. His stock has fallen some since the draft process started, but he could be very effective in this system. Cornerback is also an option here.
20. Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree, LB-The Bears have filled some of their needs with free agency, but they might not be long-term answers. The O-line is especially worrisome, but they signed Jermon Bushrod, who is a stopgap at best. They added DJ Williams at LB, but could add another one in Ogletree. He's fast and great in coverage, but needs to work on technique, especially tackling.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Arthur Brown, LB-The Bengals have been looking at some LBs in free agency, but haven't been able, so far, to get them under contract. If the team plans to move Rey Maualuga to SLB and Vontaze Burfict to MLB, Brown could step in to complete the trio. He's speedy, instinctive, and flies to the ball.
22. St Louis Rams: Jonathan Cyprien, S-Cyprien's stock has been soaring, and the Rams have a clear need at safety, making it a natural pick. He has terrific range and an ability to make a big hit once he gets to the ball. The Rams rebuilt the CB unit last year, and adding a young, star-caliber safety this year could lead to a great secondary in future seasons.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Desmond Trufant, CB-The Vikings lost long-time CB Antoine Winfield this offseason, and Trufant could be his replacement. They also need a WR, but with a draft deep at both positions, they can take the guy they like best. Trufant has lots of experience, and is very quick. He could wind up being the best CB in this draft.
24. Indianapolis Colts: Datone Jones, DE-The Colts biggest need is just to complete the transition to the 3-4 defense. They have used free agency to add players, but adding a versatile player like Jones can only help. Jones has 3-4 experience, and can play well both against the run, and as a pass rusher. The Colts offense is coming along. A better defense make them a threat in any game.
25. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR-Since Minnesota addressed the defense with their first pick, they go to the offense with this one. Hopkins was a TD machine last year and has the size and ability to be a star. He won't drop passes and will quickly be a factor. If they stay on the defensive side of the ball, DT could be the pick.
26. Green Bay Packers: Matt Elam, S-The Packers offense is one of the league best, but needs a more consistent RB, so that's an option, but a little early. The defense can use some help, and drafting Elam gives them a guy who is physical and who has a knack for making plays. If the defense can keep opponents' scoring down, the offense will do the rest.
27. Houston Texans: Keenan Allen, WR-Andre Johnson showed he still has something left in the tank in 2012, but he is getting up there in age. The Texans badly need another WR to take pressure off AJ, and to take over once he retires. Allen isn't blazing fast, but he has good hands and can make all the plays, despite a rough pro day performance.
28. Denver Broncos: Tank Carradine, DE-The Broncos are almost certain to address the defense with this pick, and with the loss of Elvis Dumervil, DE is a need. Carradine is coming off an injury, so there is risk, but his play speaks for itself. Another pass rusher will keep teams from loading up to stop Von Miller, keeping both as pass rush threats. Sylvester Williams could be the pick if they go DT.
29. New England Patriots: Johnathan Banks, CB-The CB position is a concern right now with Alfonzo Dennard's off-field issues. Banks brings a tall frame, though his lack of speed could be a concern. He does have the ability to make a big play, even though he may give them up at times too.
30. Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Eifert, TE-The Falcons could go in a few different ways here. Tony Gonzalez is back, but it's probably his last season. Eifert is the best TE in the draft, and would take over in 2014. He's a very good receiver, and an adequate blocker. He could go much earlier, so he might be a huge steal at this spot.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Eric Reid, S-The 49ers need help at safety. In the Super Bowl, Donte Whitner was beaten badly, and Dashon Goldson left via free agency. With three of the top safeties already gone, they might have to go ahead and take Reid now. He struggles at time in coverage, but has speed and power. He needs to work on technique.
32. Baltimore Ravens: Kevin Minter, LB-The Ravens lost some key members of the defense this offseason, including future Hall of Fame MLB Ray Lewis. Minter is a smart player and finds his way to the football more often than not. Wide receiver is another possibility, with Robert Woods available to pair with Torrey Smith.
To begin with, this is one of the most wide-open drafts I can remember. There's no consensus #1 player, and even among positional groups, no definitive order to when they'll be drafted. At quarterback, after Geno Smith, there are no less than five different QBs laying claim to the second QB spot. It's the same at several other positions as well, meaning speculation is all anybody has at this point.
What is known is that it seems to be a deep class, despite the lack of a single top player. Wide receiver and cornerback are especially deep, with safety, defensive tackle, and running back right behind them. Teams will, of course, have personal favorites, but nobody will know those until draft night. Trades will also negate many mock drafts, as they're impossible to predict. It seems certain that somebody will trade up for one of the top offensive tackles, but aside from that, it's a crapshoot. With all of those factors, it certainly seems pointless to try and predict it. Here goes anyway.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Luke Joeckel, OT-The Chiefs, despite having the first pick, are in a tough spot. The potential top picks are all at positions they have established starters, if you count Alex Smith at QB. I do think they'll give Smith the chance. That leaves tackle, and Joeckel is the best. They have Brandon Albert at LT, but he's making a lot of money and likely gone after this year, or sooner if they can unload him via trade.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Dion Jordan, LB-Jacksonville could select Geno Smith here, as QB is a need, but they also badly need a pass rush. Jordan is an amazing athlete with quickness and an ability to contribute in a number of ways. He is good in coverage, but has the tools to develop into a very good pass rusher as well. The Jags will try to win games with defense for now.
3. Oakland Raiders: Ezekial Ansah, DE-Sharrif Floyd is the popular pick here, and could be the guy, but Ansah brings versatility and upside to the Raiders defensive line. He will need work, but his raw talent is undeniable, and the Raiders aren't in "win now" mode, so he will be able to take the time to get better, and grow with the rest of a young team.
4. Philadelphia Eagles: Star Lotulelei, DT-This is a spot that could be ripe for a trade, with teams trying to move up for Eric Fisher. If they keep it, the Eagles could go a number of ways, with Geno Smith, again being an option. I think defensive line will be the pick, with a change to the 3-4. With health concerns cleared up, Star is back to the top of the list.
5. Detroit Lions: Eric Fisher, OT-There's an above average chance that a team will trade in front of Detroit for Fisher, but in this scenario, he's available, and an easy pick. Jeff Backus retired, leaving a hole on the line, and Fisher fills it. If Fisher is gone, Dee Milliner could be the pick. Fisher is considered nearly a sure-thing at T and makes QB Matt Stafford a lot safer.
6. Cleveland Browns: Barkevious Mingo, LB-The Browns are yet another spot Geno Smith could land, but they likely go defense to add parts to the new 3-4 look. Mingo is a perfect fit as a pass rushing OLB, and would be a great addition, even though they added Paul Kruger. Mingo brings amazing speed and a ton of upside with him. Milliner could be an option as well.
7. Arizona Cardinals: Lane Johnson, OT-The Cardinals added Carson Palmer to play QB, but will need to improve an offensive line that was terrible in 2012. Lane Johnson is the last of the three elite tackle prospects and is almost assuredly the pick if he's there. There's a danger of a team trading up to take him before they pick, though. Jarvis Jones could be the back-up option.
8. Buffalo Bills: Geno Smith, QB-The Bills need a QB, and the best in the draft found his way to them, making it an easy pick. He has some things to improve on, but has the skill-set to succeed in the NFL. His arm is good, and his mobility make him dangerous when the pocket breaks down. He's a pocket QB first, though.
9. New York Jets: Jarvis Jones, LB-The Jets were a circus last year, and need to get past that or it won't matter who they draft. QB is still a problem area, and probably remains so this year. They also need a pass rushing OLB, and Jones is the best available. There are health concerns, but if he is able to stay on the field, he's a playmaker.
10. Tennessee Titans: Dee Milliner, CB-With the addition of Andy Levitre at guard, the Titans will look to shore up the defense, especially the secondary. Here, the top CB in the draft is still available, and the pick. Milliner is long, fast, and athletic. He does have some questions about technique, but he fills a big need for Tennessee.
11. San Diego Chargers: Chance Warmack, G-The Chargers are a candidate to move up for one of the Ts, but in this case, they didn't. Philip Rivers needs a better line, so they go get the best G in the draft. Defense could be an option as well, possibly CB or OLB if one they covet is there. Warmack is one of the best players in the draft, regardless of position, and is a great choice.
12. Miami Dolphins: Xavier Rhodes, CB-Miami is another team who could move up for a T, but here, they go for another big need, CB. They've lost a couple of starters over the past few seasons, and really need to upgrade, even with the Brent Grimes signing. Rhodes has size and physicality, and showed more speed than expected at the combine. He'll start right away.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sharrif Floyd, DT-The Bucs could make three straight CBs, but with Floyd still available, they go there instead. He could be gone as early as #2 to Jacksonville, but in this draft, he fell a little due to needs of the teams. Here, he brings his quickness and ability to rush the QB from the interior to the Tampa Bay line.
14. Carolina Panthers: Sheldon Richardson, DT-The interior of the defensive line has been a need for more than one season for Carolina, and they address it here. Richardson is disruptive from the inside, using quickness and determination to make plays. He could be a steal at this point. Cornerback could be another option.
15. New Orleans Saints: Kenny Vaccaro, S-The Saints are switching to a 3-4 defense and need personnel to make it work, but the top guys are gone here. The secondary is also a concern and safety in particular. Vaccaro is the best safety in the draft, and is an automatic upgrade. He's fast and a solid tackler, and can play CB against slot WRs as well.
16. St Louis Rams: Tavon Austin, WR-The one consistent selection among mock drafts has been Austin to the Rams. With Danny Amendola gone, they can certainly use a playmaker like Austin. He's small, but his game-changing ability is remarkable. Every play is potentially a touchdown, and that's something that can't be quantified.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers: Cordarrelle Patterson, WR-The Steelers would probably have taken Vaccaro if he was there, but they could also use a receiver to replace the departed Mike Wallace. Antonio Brown needs somebody to take the heat off of him. Patterson has question marks from having only one season of major college football, but he certainly has the talent.
18. Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Cooper, G-This one might be another no-brainer, as the offensive line was a train wreck in 2012. Cooper is rated higher than Warmack by many people, and is an instant starter in Dallas. His strength and agility make him a fantastic option available at this point, and Cowboys fans will be thrilled to have him helping protect Romo.
19. New York Giants: Bjoern Werner, DE-The Giants lost Osi Umenyiora in free agency and would love to replace him, and keep a versatile D-line. Werner is big, strong, and fits in with what they want to do. His stock has fallen some since the draft process started, but he could be very effective in this system. Cornerback is also an option here.
20. Chicago Bears: Alec Ogletree, LB-The Bears have filled some of their needs with free agency, but they might not be long-term answers. The O-line is especially worrisome, but they signed Jermon Bushrod, who is a stopgap at best. They added DJ Williams at LB, but could add another one in Ogletree. He's fast and great in coverage, but needs to work on technique, especially tackling.
21. Cincinnati Bengals: Arthur Brown, LB-The Bengals have been looking at some LBs in free agency, but haven't been able, so far, to get them under contract. If the team plans to move Rey Maualuga to SLB and Vontaze Burfict to MLB, Brown could step in to complete the trio. He's speedy, instinctive, and flies to the ball.
22. St Louis Rams: Jonathan Cyprien, S-Cyprien's stock has been soaring, and the Rams have a clear need at safety, making it a natural pick. He has terrific range and an ability to make a big hit once he gets to the ball. The Rams rebuilt the CB unit last year, and adding a young, star-caliber safety this year could lead to a great secondary in future seasons.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Desmond Trufant, CB-The Vikings lost long-time CB Antoine Winfield this offseason, and Trufant could be his replacement. They also need a WR, but with a draft deep at both positions, they can take the guy they like best. Trufant has lots of experience, and is very quick. He could wind up being the best CB in this draft.
24. Indianapolis Colts: Datone Jones, DE-The Colts biggest need is just to complete the transition to the 3-4 defense. They have used free agency to add players, but adding a versatile player like Jones can only help. Jones has 3-4 experience, and can play well both against the run, and as a pass rusher. The Colts offense is coming along. A better defense make them a threat in any game.
25. Minnesota Vikings: DeAndre Hopkins, WR-Since Minnesota addressed the defense with their first pick, they go to the offense with this one. Hopkins was a TD machine last year and has the size and ability to be a star. He won't drop passes and will quickly be a factor. If they stay on the defensive side of the ball, DT could be the pick.
26. Green Bay Packers: Matt Elam, S-The Packers offense is one of the league best, but needs a more consistent RB, so that's an option, but a little early. The defense can use some help, and drafting Elam gives them a guy who is physical and who has a knack for making plays. If the defense can keep opponents' scoring down, the offense will do the rest.
27. Houston Texans: Keenan Allen, WR-Andre Johnson showed he still has something left in the tank in 2012, but he is getting up there in age. The Texans badly need another WR to take pressure off AJ, and to take over once he retires. Allen isn't blazing fast, but he has good hands and can make all the plays, despite a rough pro day performance.
28. Denver Broncos: Tank Carradine, DE-The Broncos are almost certain to address the defense with this pick, and with the loss of Elvis Dumervil, DE is a need. Carradine is coming off an injury, so there is risk, but his play speaks for itself. Another pass rusher will keep teams from loading up to stop Von Miller, keeping both as pass rush threats. Sylvester Williams could be the pick if they go DT.
29. New England Patriots: Johnathan Banks, CB-The CB position is a concern right now with Alfonzo Dennard's off-field issues. Banks brings a tall frame, though his lack of speed could be a concern. He does have the ability to make a big play, even though he may give them up at times too.
30. Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Eifert, TE-The Falcons could go in a few different ways here. Tony Gonzalez is back, but it's probably his last season. Eifert is the best TE in the draft, and would take over in 2014. He's a very good receiver, and an adequate blocker. He could go much earlier, so he might be a huge steal at this spot.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Eric Reid, S-The 49ers need help at safety. In the Super Bowl, Donte Whitner was beaten badly, and Dashon Goldson left via free agency. With three of the top safeties already gone, they might have to go ahead and take Reid now. He struggles at time in coverage, but has speed and power. He needs to work on technique.
32. Baltimore Ravens: Kevin Minter, LB-The Ravens lost some key members of the defense this offseason, including future Hall of Fame MLB Ray Lewis. Minter is a smart player and finds his way to the football more often than not. Wide receiver is another possibility, with Robert Woods available to pair with Torrey Smith.
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