Are expectations too high for AJ Green?

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Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver AJ Green might be the greatest in team history at his position. The franchise has had some quality receivers, but Green's combination of size, speed, talent, and pedigree are unmatched. He exploded onto the scene as a rookie, and then continued to be not only the Bengals best pass catcher, but one of the league's best. After five seasons, he averaged 83 receptions, 1,234 yards, and 9 touchdowns per year. He was also a Pro Bowler in all five of those seasons.

In 2016, Green missed his first significant time to injury, tearing a hamstring that forced him to miss the final six games. For the first time in his career, he didn't make it to 1,000 yards receiving. He played all 16 games in 2017, but had the second-lowest yards per reception of his career, and barely passed 1,000 yards overall. He was hurt again in 2018, and didn't play at all in 2019.

As he enters the 2020 season, Green is reportedly healthy and fans are ready for a resurgence. With a rookie quarterback taken with the first overall pick, the team looks to rebound from one of the franchise's worst ever years. Green is expected to be a big part of the offense, and the team would love to get him signed to an extension. Fans are excited to get him back on the field, and many expect him to take his place back among the elite receivers in the NFL. Is that kind of expectation fair though?

From 2014 until now (not counting 2019, in which he didn't play), Green's numbers don't jump of the page. His yearly averages are 68 receptions, 1,014 yards, and less than 7 touchdowns. Injuries played a part in three of those seasons, but that's another huge issue. In the past six years, Green has only been healthy for two of them. He's missed at least three games in the other four, and as mentioned, missed all of last year.

Now, at what will be 31 years old, after a full season of not playing, Green's expected to be the same guy he was when he was 25, and that might just be unreasonable. He was never the most explosive receiver, and might be even less so now. It's more likely that he's used more like Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals. The Bengals have a deep receiver corps, and that ideally lets Green rest more and stay healthy.

There are reasons to be optimistic this coming year. Green is apparently healthy, and 31 isn't "old" for a receiver. However, expectations need to be tempered. As great as he has been, he has only broken 1,100 yards three times in his career, and hasn't had double-digit touchdown numbers in four years. If he stays healthy, he could be an effective receiver, and could have some fine numbers. He could even have a career year in terms of receptions, if deployed correctly. He just might not be a 1,200 yard and 10 score guy anymore. Fans want him back on the field, and he could be a really good player again. Expecting him to be elite might be too much.

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