My mock draft
I've done my mock draft in two parts. First, I listed who I thought teams "should" take. Then, who I thought they "would" take. The lists are exclusive, so if I used a player on the "should take" list, then they were off the board for the rest of the "should take" picks.
1. Carolina Panthers:
Should pick: Marcel Dareus.
Will pick: Cam Newton: Everybody is aware of my feelings on Newton. His athleticism is off the charts, but that is less important at QB than a feel for the pocket, ability to read defenses, and poise. Newton could be really good, but it's going to be at least 2, maybe more, years before he's able to reach potential. To big a project for the 1st overall pick IMO, but Carolina needs a QB, and with Luck going back to school, there's just not a pro ready QB in this class. Newton will be the pick.
2. Denver Broncos:
Should pick: Von Miller
Will pick: Marcel Dareus: The Dareus pick actually works out better. The Broncos get Elvis Dumervil back, and have basically nobody at DT. Dareus not only fills their biggest need, but is possibly the best player available. He's bigger than Fairley, but showed tremendous athleticism at the combine. Dareus, a healthy Dumervil, and DJ Williams could provide a good base for the Denver D.
3. Buffalo Bills:
Should pick: Blaine Gabbert
Will pick: Von Miller: The Bills would actually be in a good position to take a QB, who could sit a year while Fitzpatrick runs the team, as he did a passable job last year. But, by all accounts, The Bills covet Newton, who isn't available in this scenario. Miller fits nicely and becomes an instant starter for a team that needs a pass rush. Patrick Peterson is also an option.
4. Cincinnati Bengals:
Should pick: Patrick Peterson
Will pick: AJ Green: I've made it clear that I prefer Peterson. He's the best player in the entire draft, and I firmly believe that Hall or Joseph, maybe both, will be gone after next year. However, with TO gone, and Chad Ochocinco probably on the way out, a #1 receiver is also needed. Green would line up across from Simpson with Shipley in the slot. Whoever the QB is will need somebody to throw it to.
5. Arizona Cardinals:
Should pick: Robert Quinn
Will pick: Patrick Peterson: Again, it actually works out better if the picks fall the way I think they will. I think they will pass on a QB, mostly because Larry Fitzgerald wants to sign a veteran. Also, by taking this route, they get the best player in the draft, and wind up with what could be the most dynamic secondary in the NFL.
6. Cleveland Browns:
Should pick: AJ Green
Will pick: Robert Quinn: The Browns would fall all over themselves if they had the chance to draft Green, but in this case, he's gone, so they'll take a player to fit the new 4-3 they'll be changing to. Quinn has speed to burn, and should provide a sack threat for a team in transition. Jones is a possibility too, but I think it's too early.
7. San Francisco 49ers:
Should pick: Prince Amakamura
Will pick: Blaine Gabbert: I think the Niners would love to see Peterson drop to them, but in this case, since he's gone, Amakamura seems to be a solid fit. However, they desperately need a QB, and though I've heard that Alex Smith might get another chance, that could be just to give Gabbert a chance to learn the offense.
8. Tennessee Titans:
Should pick: Nick Fairley
Will pick: Nick Fairley: I'm with everybody else on this one. I'm not a huge Fairley fan, but the Titans can use the line help, and with Fairley's former coach on the staff, they should be able to maximize his talents. He should add another dimension to the Tennessee pass rush. Julio Jones might be an option here with Kenny Britt's arrest.
9. Dallas Cowboys:
Should pick: Tyron Smith
Will pick: Tyron Smith: The Cowboys offensive line was, well, offensive last season. Jerry Jones is known for going for more flashy options, but OL is a desperate need, and Smith is the top tackle in the draft. Amakamura is an option too as Terrance Newman is old and noticibly slowing down.
10. Washington Redskins:
Should pick: Julio Jones
Will pick: Julio Jones: Once again, the picks align. The Redskins have nothing at WR, with recent draftees not panning out. Jones was amazing at the combine, and, while he's a notch below AJ Green, he's still a star in the making. They'll go after one of the vetaran QBs once the lockout ends.
11. Houston Texans:
Should pick: Aldon Smith
Will pick: Prince Amakamura: The Texans secondary was atrocious last year, killing any playoff hopes the team had. They picked a CB in the first round last year, so there's a possibility of an OLB like Smith, or even a DE like Cameron Jordan. I think Amakamura is the pick if he's there though.
12. Minnesota Vikings:
Should pick: Ryan Kerrigan
Will pick: Aldon Smith: I think the pick will be DE, one way or the other. Jake Locker might be in play, but I think, in the end, it's just too early. The Vikings need DE help, and either Kerrigan or Smith would fit the bill. Smith is available in this circumstance, and is the pick.
13. Detroit Lions:
Should pick: Anthony Castonzo
Will pick: Jimmy Smith: The Lions can play this a few ways. One is to be safe, and take a needed starting tackle, which Castonzo is. The other is to risk taking Smith, who is immensely talented, but troubled. The Lions would love to have Amakamura drop to them, but Smith's talent will goad them into pulling the trigger.
14. St Louis Rams:
Should pick: Mike Pouncey
Will pick: Ryan Kerrigan: The Rams really need to address the WR position, but with Green and Jones off the board, the value isn't there. It's pretty early for a guard, but it's a big need. DE is the other real position of need, and Kerrigan could be a good fit, and makes a nice bookend with Chris Long on the defensive line. They could be looking to trade down.
15. Miami Dolphins:
Should pick: Mark Ingram
Will pick: Mike Pouncey: The Dolphins need a RB, but can find one in later rounds. They need to shore up the offensive line, and Pouncey will do just that. They'll be tempted to go QB here, maybe Jake Locker, because they have no 2nd round pick, but they have too many other needs.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars:
Should pick: Cam Newton
Will pick: JJ Watt: The Jauars are another team who badly needs to upgrade the secondary, but with Smith off the board, the next option is either a QB like Locker, who could sit for a year (or Newton in my first scenario), or a DE to beef up the line. Watt is the best available DE, so he's the pick.
17. New England Patriots:
Should pick: JJ Watt
Will pick: Anthony Castonzo: Under the first scenario, Watt being available makes it easy, but either way, they have options. They need help, though, along the offensive line, and Castonzo is an NFL ready tackle who will step in immediately. Cameron Jordon could be in play as well.
18. San Diego Chargers:
Should pick: Cameron Jordan
Will pick: Cameron Jordon: The Chargers need help on the defensive side of the ball, particularly up front. Jordon being available is great for San Diego, and will start from day one. They also need help at OLB, but the value isn't there at this point.
19. New York Giants:
Should pick: Gabe Carimi
Will pick: Muhammed Wilkerson: The Giants struggled last year, missing the playoffs. They could use help in several areas, including both lines. Wilkerson is the kind of player the Giants like to use, able to play both inside and out. He'll be able to give the Giants different looks up front, keeping the line versatile.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Should pick: D'Quan Bowers
Will pick: Justin Houston: The Bucs are one of the teams looking to move up via a trade, but for my purposes, they pick here. They've made some nice picks lately, but really need a DE in this position. I think this is a good spot to go with Bowers, especially in light of Houston failing a drug test at the combine, but I think they'll be more afraid of Bowers's knee than Houston's test.
21. Kansas City Chiefs:
Should pick: Nate Solder
Will pick: Gabe Carimi: The Chiefs need a RT and Carimi still being around works out perfectly. They could also go with Phil Taylor at this spot to fill the nose tackle position, but I think the need at tackle is higher.
22. Indianapolis Colts:
Should pick: Derrick Sherrod
Will pick: Nate Solder: The Colts badly need offensive lineman, and either Sherrod or Solder being available will work. They need to protect Manning if they want his last years to be productive years, and have a shot at another Super Bowl. Corey Luiget is possible here too.
23. Philadelphia Eagles:
Should pick: Akeem Ayers
Will pick: Aaron Williams: The Eagles have a huge hole at CB, but with Peterson, Amakamura, and Smith all gone, Williams is the next best option. I think there's a good possibility Philly trades up to get Smith, but if they keep this pick, Williams will be the guy.
24. New Orleans Saints:
Should pick: Justin Houston
Will pick: D'Quan Bowers: I think DE is the pick here, in some capacity. In this case, Houston is off the board, so Bowers or Adrian Clayborn will the the two in consideration. I think Bowers is worth the risk at this point.
25. Seattle Seahawks:
Should pick: Ryan Mallett
Will pick: Jake Locker: Matt Hasselbeck is gone, and Charlie Whitehurst just isn't a starting QB. I think they'd love to have Locker fall to them, even if they sign a veteran like Marc Bulger. Locker has a lot of questions, but so do all of the QBs in this draft.
26. Baltimore Ravens:
Should pick: Brandon Harris
Will pick: Cameron Heyward: The Ravens secondary is horrible, and needs to be addressed, but With the top 4 corners gone, they probably will go with the D-line instead. Heyward fits the scheme, and should immediately go into the rotation at DE.
27. Atlanta Falcons:
Should pick: Adrian Clayborn
Will pick: Adrian Clayborn: The Falcons need a DE, and Clayborn is the last of the 1st round DE's available. He will provide good speed on the opposite side from John Abraham. Titus Young could be an option as well.
28. New England Patriots:
Should pick: Ben Ijalana
Will pick: Akeem Ayers: I really think this pick will be traded, probably to a team looking to move up for a QB. But, for my purposes, they'll make it themselves. They already added to the O-line, so they address defense here. The DEs are gone, so they go with Ayers to be a rush OLB.
29. Chicago Bears:
Should pick: Corey Luiget
Will pick: Corey Luiget: There's an above average chance that Luiget won't fall this far, but I have most teams above the Bears coveting DEs instead of DT. Luiget replaces Tommy Harris and starts right away.
30. New York Jets:
Should pick: Phil Taylor
Will pick: Brooks Reed: The Jets need to address a few spots in its front seven, and DT or OLB would work. Taylor's foot might scare them off, but I'd risk it. I think they'll go with Reed though.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers:
Should pick: Ras-I Dowling
Will pick: Derrick Sherrod: The second set of circumstances works out ideally for the Steelers, and allows them to address a weak offensive line. They'd love Pouncey to fall to them, but I don't see that happening. They could also take a guard instead.
32. Green Bay Packers:
Should pick: Christian Ballard
Will pick: Ras-I Dowling: This was the biggest toss-up of the draft for me, and they may just look to trade down, again to a team wanting a QB. DE is the biggest need, and Ballard is the best available, but Dowling could be tabbed to replace Woodson. This one is just a guess.
1. Carolina Panthers:
Should pick: Marcel Dareus.
Will pick: Cam Newton: Everybody is aware of my feelings on Newton. His athleticism is off the charts, but that is less important at QB than a feel for the pocket, ability to read defenses, and poise. Newton could be really good, but it's going to be at least 2, maybe more, years before he's able to reach potential. To big a project for the 1st overall pick IMO, but Carolina needs a QB, and with Luck going back to school, there's just not a pro ready QB in this class. Newton will be the pick.
2. Denver Broncos:
Should pick: Von Miller
Will pick: Marcel Dareus: The Dareus pick actually works out better. The Broncos get Elvis Dumervil back, and have basically nobody at DT. Dareus not only fills their biggest need, but is possibly the best player available. He's bigger than Fairley, but showed tremendous athleticism at the combine. Dareus, a healthy Dumervil, and DJ Williams could provide a good base for the Denver D.
3. Buffalo Bills:
Should pick: Blaine Gabbert
Will pick: Von Miller: The Bills would actually be in a good position to take a QB, who could sit a year while Fitzpatrick runs the team, as he did a passable job last year. But, by all accounts, The Bills covet Newton, who isn't available in this scenario. Miller fits nicely and becomes an instant starter for a team that needs a pass rush. Patrick Peterson is also an option.
4. Cincinnati Bengals:
Should pick: Patrick Peterson
Will pick: AJ Green: I've made it clear that I prefer Peterson. He's the best player in the entire draft, and I firmly believe that Hall or Joseph, maybe both, will be gone after next year. However, with TO gone, and Chad Ochocinco probably on the way out, a #1 receiver is also needed. Green would line up across from Simpson with Shipley in the slot. Whoever the QB is will need somebody to throw it to.
5. Arizona Cardinals:
Should pick: Robert Quinn
Will pick: Patrick Peterson: Again, it actually works out better if the picks fall the way I think they will. I think they will pass on a QB, mostly because Larry Fitzgerald wants to sign a veteran. Also, by taking this route, they get the best player in the draft, and wind up with what could be the most dynamic secondary in the NFL.
6. Cleveland Browns:
Should pick: AJ Green
Will pick: Robert Quinn: The Browns would fall all over themselves if they had the chance to draft Green, but in this case, he's gone, so they'll take a player to fit the new 4-3 they'll be changing to. Quinn has speed to burn, and should provide a sack threat for a team in transition. Jones is a possibility too, but I think it's too early.
7. San Francisco 49ers:
Should pick: Prince Amakamura
Will pick: Blaine Gabbert: I think the Niners would love to see Peterson drop to them, but in this case, since he's gone, Amakamura seems to be a solid fit. However, they desperately need a QB, and though I've heard that Alex Smith might get another chance, that could be just to give Gabbert a chance to learn the offense.
8. Tennessee Titans:
Should pick: Nick Fairley
Will pick: Nick Fairley: I'm with everybody else on this one. I'm not a huge Fairley fan, but the Titans can use the line help, and with Fairley's former coach on the staff, they should be able to maximize his talents. He should add another dimension to the Tennessee pass rush. Julio Jones might be an option here with Kenny Britt's arrest.
9. Dallas Cowboys:
Should pick: Tyron Smith
Will pick: Tyron Smith: The Cowboys offensive line was, well, offensive last season. Jerry Jones is known for going for more flashy options, but OL is a desperate need, and Smith is the top tackle in the draft. Amakamura is an option too as Terrance Newman is old and noticibly slowing down.
10. Washington Redskins:
Should pick: Julio Jones
Will pick: Julio Jones: Once again, the picks align. The Redskins have nothing at WR, with recent draftees not panning out. Jones was amazing at the combine, and, while he's a notch below AJ Green, he's still a star in the making. They'll go after one of the vetaran QBs once the lockout ends.
11. Houston Texans:
Should pick: Aldon Smith
Will pick: Prince Amakamura: The Texans secondary was atrocious last year, killing any playoff hopes the team had. They picked a CB in the first round last year, so there's a possibility of an OLB like Smith, or even a DE like Cameron Jordan. I think Amakamura is the pick if he's there though.
12. Minnesota Vikings:
Should pick: Ryan Kerrigan
Will pick: Aldon Smith: I think the pick will be DE, one way or the other. Jake Locker might be in play, but I think, in the end, it's just too early. The Vikings need DE help, and either Kerrigan or Smith would fit the bill. Smith is available in this circumstance, and is the pick.
13. Detroit Lions:
Should pick: Anthony Castonzo
Will pick: Jimmy Smith: The Lions can play this a few ways. One is to be safe, and take a needed starting tackle, which Castonzo is. The other is to risk taking Smith, who is immensely talented, but troubled. The Lions would love to have Amakamura drop to them, but Smith's talent will goad them into pulling the trigger.
14. St Louis Rams:
Should pick: Mike Pouncey
Will pick: Ryan Kerrigan: The Rams really need to address the WR position, but with Green and Jones off the board, the value isn't there. It's pretty early for a guard, but it's a big need. DE is the other real position of need, and Kerrigan could be a good fit, and makes a nice bookend with Chris Long on the defensive line. They could be looking to trade down.
15. Miami Dolphins:
Should pick: Mark Ingram
Will pick: Mike Pouncey: The Dolphins need a RB, but can find one in later rounds. They need to shore up the offensive line, and Pouncey will do just that. They'll be tempted to go QB here, maybe Jake Locker, because they have no 2nd round pick, but they have too many other needs.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars:
Should pick: Cam Newton
Will pick: JJ Watt: The Jauars are another team who badly needs to upgrade the secondary, but with Smith off the board, the next option is either a QB like Locker, who could sit for a year (or Newton in my first scenario), or a DE to beef up the line. Watt is the best available DE, so he's the pick.
17. New England Patriots:
Should pick: JJ Watt
Will pick: Anthony Castonzo: Under the first scenario, Watt being available makes it easy, but either way, they have options. They need help, though, along the offensive line, and Castonzo is an NFL ready tackle who will step in immediately. Cameron Jordon could be in play as well.
18. San Diego Chargers:
Should pick: Cameron Jordan
Will pick: Cameron Jordon: The Chargers need help on the defensive side of the ball, particularly up front. Jordon being available is great for San Diego, and will start from day one. They also need help at OLB, but the value isn't there at this point.
19. New York Giants:
Should pick: Gabe Carimi
Will pick: Muhammed Wilkerson: The Giants struggled last year, missing the playoffs. They could use help in several areas, including both lines. Wilkerson is the kind of player the Giants like to use, able to play both inside and out. He'll be able to give the Giants different looks up front, keeping the line versatile.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Should pick: D'Quan Bowers
Will pick: Justin Houston: The Bucs are one of the teams looking to move up via a trade, but for my purposes, they pick here. They've made some nice picks lately, but really need a DE in this position. I think this is a good spot to go with Bowers, especially in light of Houston failing a drug test at the combine, but I think they'll be more afraid of Bowers's knee than Houston's test.
21. Kansas City Chiefs:
Should pick: Nate Solder
Will pick: Gabe Carimi: The Chiefs need a RT and Carimi still being around works out perfectly. They could also go with Phil Taylor at this spot to fill the nose tackle position, but I think the need at tackle is higher.
22. Indianapolis Colts:
Should pick: Derrick Sherrod
Will pick: Nate Solder: The Colts badly need offensive lineman, and either Sherrod or Solder being available will work. They need to protect Manning if they want his last years to be productive years, and have a shot at another Super Bowl. Corey Luiget is possible here too.
23. Philadelphia Eagles:
Should pick: Akeem Ayers
Will pick: Aaron Williams: The Eagles have a huge hole at CB, but with Peterson, Amakamura, and Smith all gone, Williams is the next best option. I think there's a good possibility Philly trades up to get Smith, but if they keep this pick, Williams will be the guy.
24. New Orleans Saints:
Should pick: Justin Houston
Will pick: D'Quan Bowers: I think DE is the pick here, in some capacity. In this case, Houston is off the board, so Bowers or Adrian Clayborn will the the two in consideration. I think Bowers is worth the risk at this point.
25. Seattle Seahawks:
Should pick: Ryan Mallett
Will pick: Jake Locker: Matt Hasselbeck is gone, and Charlie Whitehurst just isn't a starting QB. I think they'd love to have Locker fall to them, even if they sign a veteran like Marc Bulger. Locker has a lot of questions, but so do all of the QBs in this draft.
26. Baltimore Ravens:
Should pick: Brandon Harris
Will pick: Cameron Heyward: The Ravens secondary is horrible, and needs to be addressed, but With the top 4 corners gone, they probably will go with the D-line instead. Heyward fits the scheme, and should immediately go into the rotation at DE.
27. Atlanta Falcons:
Should pick: Adrian Clayborn
Will pick: Adrian Clayborn: The Falcons need a DE, and Clayborn is the last of the 1st round DE's available. He will provide good speed on the opposite side from John Abraham. Titus Young could be an option as well.
28. New England Patriots:
Should pick: Ben Ijalana
Will pick: Akeem Ayers: I really think this pick will be traded, probably to a team looking to move up for a QB. But, for my purposes, they'll make it themselves. They already added to the O-line, so they address defense here. The DEs are gone, so they go with Ayers to be a rush OLB.
29. Chicago Bears:
Should pick: Corey Luiget
Will pick: Corey Luiget: There's an above average chance that Luiget won't fall this far, but I have most teams above the Bears coveting DEs instead of DT. Luiget replaces Tommy Harris and starts right away.
30. New York Jets:
Should pick: Phil Taylor
Will pick: Brooks Reed: The Jets need to address a few spots in its front seven, and DT or OLB would work. Taylor's foot might scare them off, but I'd risk it. I think they'll go with Reed though.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers:
Should pick: Ras-I Dowling
Will pick: Derrick Sherrod: The second set of circumstances works out ideally for the Steelers, and allows them to address a weak offensive line. They'd love Pouncey to fall to them, but I don't see that happening. They could also take a guard instead.
32. Green Bay Packers:
Should pick: Christian Ballard
Will pick: Ras-I Dowling: This was the biggest toss-up of the draft for me, and they may just look to trade down, again to a team wanting a QB. DE is the biggest need, and Ballard is the best available, but Dowling could be tabbed to replace Woodson. This one is just a guess.
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